Thoughts Going into the 2012 NFL Draft

A Heisman runner-up and a Heisman winner had the biggest impact on the 2012 NFL Draft pre-draft day and it’s not the two players you’re probably thinking.  Yes, the first two picks will be Andrew Luck (two-time Heisman runner-up) and Robert Griffin III (Heisman winner), potentially franchise-changing quarterbacks, but the teams for whom they’ll play would be different if not for Peyton Manning (Heisman runner-up) and Carson Palmer (Heisman winner).  If Peyton Manning doesn’t miss last season, the Colts would not have the first pick (they’ve averaged 10.8 wins during his career).  Even if he did miss last season, if he were further along in his recovery, or if he wasn’t coming off a fourth neck surgery, the Colts likely would have opened the number one pick up for auction.  That auction scenario, just as was the case with the second overall case, was greatly impacted, in my view, by the Carson Palmer trade last season. 


Palmer, a “retired” 31-year-old quarterback who had only two winning seasons, played in one playoff game, was selected to only two Pro Bowls,  and had a major leg injury was traded for 2 (potentially) first-round draft picks (a first rounder in this year’s draft and a conditional second rounder that becomes a first rounder if certain conditions are met)  If that guy is worth two first-round picks, it’s certainly reasonable for a team holding one of the first two picks in this year’s draft to demand more than that in order for a chance at Luck or RGIII.  As a result, the Rams received three first-round picks (swapping this year’s 2^nd pick for this year’s 6^th pick and a first-round pick in the next two drafts) and a second-round pick this year.  The NFL Draft is one of my favorite days of the year and here are ten thoughts I have going into the first round:  


1.  Luck and RGIII are locks and for good reason.  Luck doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses.  The two that were perceived weaknesses (a lack of athleticism and arm strength) have seemingly been pushed aside.  His combine measurables weren’t very far off from the unquestioned athlete in RGIII (he even ran a 4.59 40) and during his pro day, which was by all accounts very windy, he chose to throw against the wind for the duration and impressed all in attendance.  One of the things that frustrates me about RGIII talk is that so many describe him as a running quarterback.  This guy is a pocket passer who throws one of the best deep balls I’ve seen in many years.  He just happens to have world-class speed (who had aspirations of being an Olympian runner and ran the fastest 40 at the combine since Michael Vick).

2.  Ryan Tannehill is an interesting prospect.  I think a top-ten pick is a reach for him, but often times someone is picked higher than makes sense due to a demand at the position.  I doubt he gets past Miami at 8 (his college coach Mike Sherman is now their Offensive Coordinator), but if he does, I think he either goes 11 (someone trading up with Kansas City), or 12 to Seattle.  One of the big stories this off-season is how Tim Tebow will bring something to the Wildcat (for the Jets) that we haven’t seen because he’d bring a true passing threat out of that formation.  Given all 32 teams have some Wildcat packages, I think Tannehill also brings something to the formation we haven’t seen before.  For the first time, when the quarterback motions out to the wide receiver spot, he’s a legitimate threat given that he was a productive receiver at the college level for a season and a half.  Sure, we’ve had college quarterbacks that have become NFL wide receivers, but when have we had college wide receivers that become NFL quarterbacks?  I haven’t seen one that I can recall off-hand.

3.  The Vikings should draft Matt Kalil unless … they get some great offers from a team that wants to beat Cleveland to Trent Richardson or Tampa Bay to Morris Claiborne.  Depending on how far they’d have to drop in the first round, and I wouldn’t picture them dropping too far, they may even be able to still get Kalil.  He won’t be picked at Cleveland (4), Tampa Bay (5), or St. Louis (6).  Jacksonville at seven is a possibility, but rumors are swirling that they are aggressively shopping that pick and I’m not sure any of the teams that are thinking of making that move would be doing so for Kalil.  Miami has a great left tackle in Jake Long, and are likely to draft Ryan Tannehill, so they won’t take him.  Carolina will likely draft a defensive player.  Buffalo at ten has interest in Kalil but I think they’ll trade down into the teens, accumulate an extra pick, and draft Reilly Reiff out of Iowa. So, I think the Vikings may very well end up with their guy and earn more draft picks.


4.  We may break the record for most first-round trades.  There are a lot of slots that are very tradeable and a lot of players that teams are eyeing this year.  The Vikings at 3, Jacksonville at 7, Buffalo at 10, Kansas City at 11, are all likely trade spots.  The Eagles, Jets, and Patriots are all very interested in moving up.  Some of the players that teams might try to move up to get:  Trent Richardson, Fletcher Cox, Michael Floyd, Ryan Tannehill, Mark Barron, and Stephon Gilmore.  We know New England’s history of trading down, so it’s likely they will trade their second pick in the first round (29) to a team wanting to move back into the first round.  I can see Cleveland or Detroit being a trade partner with them.  Look for between 10 and 12 trades involving first-round picks this season!

5.  Teams looking at the cornerback position -- don’t panic.  Morris Claiborne out of LSU will be the first corner taken, that’s not really up for debate.  Stephon Gilmore out of South Carolina will likely be the next one to come off the board and maybe also in the top ten.  The third guy is likely Dre Kirkpatrick out of Alabama, although word is that several teams want to move him to safety due to his “short arms” and they think putting him in the open field will give him better chances at interceptions (he only had three in his college career).  Because of this, he may fall much farther than some people think.  Teams that have a need at corner but aren’t able to get one of these three guys -- look at Janoris Jenkins (started at Florida and transferred to North Alabama).  Talent-wise, I think he’s the second-best pure cover corner behind Claiborne.  However, his “character” issues will cause him to fall into the second round despite having first-round talent.  Another lesser-known corner option is Montana’s Trumaine Johnson, is 6’2” and has a 35” vertical, which could be tempting for a team, drafting in the second round, that faces Calvin or Andre Johnson twice a year.

6.  Roger Goodell did the Saints wrong.  I realize he’s really upset about the bounty scandal and he has to do his due diligence, but to make the Saints go through the draft without knowing which players and how many will be suspended is just weak.  Perhaps this is another way of punishing them without having to officially call it a punishment.  Jonathan Vilma will be suspended for sure after personally offering a $10,000 “bounty” on Brett Favre, luckily, the Saints have already addressed that via free agency by signing two middle linebackers.  However, I think the Saints deserve to know which defensive positions they need to focus on this weekend, Roger Goodell obviously disagrees.  

7.   Cleveland -- don’t blow your draft.  Cleveland has the 4th and the 22nd pick (from Atlanta in the Julio Jones trade last year) and has a wonderful opportunity to help their chances this season after winning a mere four games last season.  GM Mike Holmgren has been reported as being interested in Ryan Tannehill because of his upside and his background running the west-coast offense.  The top ten is already a stretch for Tannehill, but fourth overall would be a reach Mr. Fantastic couldn’t make.  Additionally, Colt McCoy shouldn’t be given up on so quickly.  He hasn’t had any weapons around him to give him a fair chance.  So, the Browns need to draft a running back and wide receiver with these two picks in whichever order they see fit.  If they have Richardson ranked above Justin Blackmon, they should take him at four, if he’s still there.  If he’s gone, draft Blackmon at four and either Doug Martin out of Boise State or Lamar Miller out of Miami at 22.  If they get Richardson, they should follow up with either Kendall Wright out of Baylor or Alshon Jeffery out of South Carolina (Michael Floyd will be gone, folks).  Then, I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded back into the late first round, perhaps with New England, to draft 29-year-old Brandon Weeden.  I don’t hate that move, but I don’t think it’s necessary with Nick Foles, Kellen Moore, Russell Wilson, Brock Osweiler, and Kirk Cousins available in later rounds.

8.  Alabama may tie for having the second most first rounders in one draft.  It’s possible, and actually quite likely, that Alabama will have five players drafted in the first round this year tying the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes,  the 2002 Miami Hurricanes, and the 1968 USC Trojans.  The only team with more was the 2004 Miami Hurricanes with six players drafted in the first round.  Trent Richardson, Mark Barron, Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Dré Kirkpatrick are all likely first-round picks this year.  Richardson is a virtual lock to be a top-ten pick (top-five really) and Mark Barron is climbing up draft boards quickly and may join him up there.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drafted seventh, ninth, or tenth.  As I mentioned before, Kirkpatrick’s stock is falling a bit, so it’s possible he falls into the twenties despite early projections having him being a mid-teens pick.  The Tide also have one of the most underrated prospects in the draft in center William Vlachos.  He may not get drafted until day three, but he’ll be a starter in the NFL sooner than later.

9.  A pick I’d like to see happen is …  Stanford TE Coby Fleener falling out of the first round to the Indianapolis Colts at 34 (keep in mind that the Colts do not have the first pick in every round due to having the same record as the Rams; so they alternate with the Colts having the first pick in odd rounds and the Rams having it in even rounds; the tie was broken by strength of schedule which gave the Colts the first pick).  There are plenty of teams in the bottom of the first round that have interest in Fleener, so it’s unlikely he falls, but if there are as many trades as I think there will be, the shakeup may be enough to let him slip.  With the Colts gutting their roster and basically only leaving Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie for Luck to throw to (TEs Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are gone), it’d be great for luck to have a TE to count on.  Who better than the first-round caliber and former college teammate Fleener?  I don’t think he’s worth the Colts trying to move up to get him, but if he falls to them they should have their pick turned in immediately.

10.  A few first-round draft pick notes:  Cleveland, Cincinnati, and New England all have two picks in the first round while Oakland, Atlanta, and New Orleans have none.  Of the three with two picks only Cleveland has a top-ten pick (4) and 22.  Cincinnati has 17 (from Oakland in the Carson Palmer Trade) and 21.  New England has 27 (from New Orleans as part of the trade to move up and draft Mark Ingram last year) and 31.  Oakland actually doesn’t have a pick until 95th overall which is a compensatory selection (as is their next pick at 148).  Atlanta has a pick in every round except the fourth which also went to Cleveland in the Julio Jones trade.  New Orleans doesn’t have a second-round pick either as it was forfeited in the punishment for the bounty scandal.  Luckily for them, they have a pick in every subsequent round -- although defensive drafting priorities have been handicapped by Goodell's inaction, or slow action, in suspending players for the aforementioned bounty scandal.


Let the fun begin!